State of the 2023 San Francisco 49ers: Super Bowl or bust in Bay Area despite lingering QB question

NFL.com Writer

Where does your squad stand in 2023? Adam Rank sets the table by providing a State of the Franchise look at all 32 teams, zeroing in on the key figures to watch and setting the stakes for the season to come.

Members of the 49ers organization, 49ers fans around the world and those who have a photo of me on their camera roll picking the 49ers to go 3-13 years ago ...

2022 was another great season, but yet again, we are stuck in the kind of quarterback uncertainty that seems to have followed the team since the days of Joe Montana and Steve Young. If the 49ers were a pop singer, they would be Harry Styles -- having more options than most of us mere mortals could hope for. What's in store for San Francisco this season? Good question.

One high from last season: Making it to the NFC Championship Game. If I had to pick one play that I think every 49ers fan looked to as the high point of the season: the final play of the Divisional Round game against Dallas, when Ezekiel Elliott lined up at center, paving San Francisco's path to the NFC title bout. That worked out like an ironic teen movie where you thought the heroes were going to line up in some crazy formation for the winning score, only to fall flat. And yeah, now that I write that, I'm not sure who viewed the Cowboys as the heroes in that scenario.

One low from last season: Having to play in the NFC Championship Game without a healthy quarterback. The good news is that this inspired a rule change. But it was still a shame. A lot of San Francisco fans were convinced they could have won that game if Brock Purdy had been healthy, and they should feel that way. I'm not saying the Niners would have beaten the Eagles, but considering they were within two scores of Philly until just before the fourth quarter despite their starter being physically unable to throw a football, that game was damn closer than it should have been.

Quarterback: Who knows?! The 2022 49ers were the second NFL team all-time to post a 100-plus team passer rating in one season with three different QBs starting multiple games. The other team was the 2016 Patriots, who won Super Bowl LI. Both squads featured Jimmy Garoppolo. But he signed with the Raiders and is in Las Vegas now. That leaves Trey Lance, Brock Purdy and free-agent signee Sam Darnold in San Francisco. I will tell you Purdy has resumed throwing as he continues to recover from the injury he suffered in the NFC title game. Last year's rookie sensation is expected to be the leader in the QB competition going into training camp, according to general manager John Lynch. I know that might not seem fair to Lance, whose season was prematurely ended by injury last September; he hasn't really had a true opportunity to start since the Niners selected him third overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. I mean, even Lance's Week 1 performance against the Bears didn't really tell us anything, because it was raining so hard in Chicago. If Purdy does indeed prove to be the guy in 2023, that will set up a pretty interesting scenario with Lance, who has at least two more seasons remaining on his rookie contract. It's not like San Francisco can trade him at this point, unless another team's starter goes down with injury before the season starts. Would the Niners even want to trade him? We don't know how Purdy is going to rebound, and Lance and Darnold are pretty good insurance options. My feeling is one of these guys is going to set himself apart this season, and one of them will eventually be traded next offseason.

Projected 2023 MVP: Christian McCaffrey, running back. Some folks laughed when I said CMC was going to be a great fit for the 49ers as an October trade acquisition. Oh, they had jokes about his health and availability coming off a two-season stretch in which he logged just 10 total appearances. But he played 17 games in 2022 (six with Carolina, 11 with San Francisco). As you could expect, he led all running backs with 741 receiving yards last year and was the only player with 1,000-plus scrimmage yards and 10-plus scrimmage touchdowns from Week 8 (when he made his first start with the 49ers) to Week 18, per NFL Research. Can't wait to see what he's going to do in his first full season in San Francisco.

New face to know: Javon Hargrave, defensive tackle. The 49ers managed to snag one of the stars of free agency when they inked Hargrave to a four-year deal worth $84 million. They have clearly long valued depth on the defensive line, but if there was one weakness on last year's No. 1 defense, it was on the interior. Adding one of the best interior pass rushers league-wide was quite a move.

2023 breakout star: Brandon Aiyuk, wide receiver. San Francisco is flush with talented pass catchers. It's easy to overlook Aiyuk, who had career highs in receptions (78), receiving yards (1,015) and touchdown catches (eight) last season. He was the only player on the team with 70-plus receptions and 800-plus yards. The scary thing is that the fourth-year pro is likely just starting to reach his potential.

Below is a rundown of the 49ers' most notable roster developments for the 2023 season, including this year's draft class, as well as key acquisitions and departures via free agency and trade.

Three key dates:

... survive without DeMeco Ryans? The 49ers' defense allowed 18.9 points per game under Ryans since 2021, the second-lowest total in the NFL. The 49ers led the NFL in scoring and total defense in 2022. It's worth noting there have only been four teams in NFL history to lead the league in scoring and total defense in back-to-back seasons. Obviously, I bring this up as a Bears fan because the 1985-86 teams did it. The most recent team to do it was the 2013-14 Seahawks, who also went to back-to-back Super Bowls. The 49ers have the talent. We talked about Javon Hargrave, who will likely turn Javon Kinlaw into a rotational piece. Nick Bosa is coming off his best season. The 2022 Defensive Player of the Year led the NFL with 18.5 quarterback sacks and 48 QB hits in 2022 while also posting a league-leading 73 quarterback pressures, per NGS. There have been just three players in history who have led the NFL in sacks in consecutive seasons. The most recent was T.J. Watt in 2020 (15) and 2021 (22.5). Also keep an eye on the continued development of safety Talanoa Hufanga, who was amazing last year. Comparisons to Hall of Famer Troy Polamalu seem warranted.

... continue to create turnovers? The 49ers had 30 takeaways in 2022, tied for second most in the NFL, behind the Dallas Cowboys. The 49ers were 9-1 in games with multiple takeaways. My guy Tashaun Gipson led the team with five takeaways. It's also important to note the 49ers' pass defense allowed a 65.6 completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks and 222.9 passing yards per game last season, both 20th in the NFL. But the turnovers helped a lot. One area the team could clean up is at slot corner. The 49ers allowed 131 receptions to players targeted in the slot last year, third most in the league, per NGS. Minor complaints, I know.

... people shouldn't overlook: How great George Kittle was down the stretch last season. This is mostly for the fantasy enthusiast who likes to throw around the phrase "injury-prone" like Dave Meltzer likes to throw around five-star match ratings (trust me, George would love this analogy). Kittle had a career-high 11 touchdowns last year, including seven in his final four games of the season. He was amazing.

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