Post-Week 10 Bowl Projections for the 2024 College Football Season

Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024—the day that things get serious.

That's right—we're talking about the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings of the year Tuesday evening. All eyes will be on ESPN as college football's powers-that-be unveil their first assessment of the '24 season.

However, as that has not happened yet, we are continuing to work off the AP Poll and College Football Reference's Simple Rating System for our weekly bowl projections. This week was a doozy for the group of teams with the greatest effect on the bowl picture—those on the margins of the CFP. Clemson? Iowa State? Texas A&M? All suffered defeat at the hands of Louisville, Texas Tech and South Carolina, respectively.

With the knowledge that the AP Poll and CFP rankings will inevitably differ, let's dive into this week's projections. Commentary follows.

GAME

LOCATION

DATE

PROJECTED MATCHUP

Celebration Bowl

Atlanta

Dec. 14

Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central

Camellia Bowl

Montgomery, Ala.

Dec. 14

Rutgers vs. Georgia Southern

Frisco Bowl

Frisco, Texas

Dec. 17

Marshall vs. Western Kentucky

Boca Raton Bowl

Boca Raton, Fla.

Dec. 18

Bowling Green vs. Arkansas State

LA Bowl

Inglewood, Calif.

Dec. 18

Oregon State vs. UNLV

New Orleans Bowl

New Orleans

Dec. 19

James Madison vs. Liberty

Cure Bowl

Orlando

Dec. 20

Eastern Michigan vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

Gasparilla Bowl

Tampa

Dec. 20

Boston College vs. Arkansas

College Football Playoff First Round—Game 1

Austin

Dec. 20

No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Texas

College Football Playoff First Round—Game 2

University Park, Pa.

Dec. 21

No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Penn State

College Football Playoff First Round—Game 3

Columbus

Dec. 21

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State

College Football Playoff First Round—Game 4

Knoxville, Tenn.

Dec. 21

No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Tennessee

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Conway, S.C.

Dec. 23

Miami-Ohio vs. Texas State

Potato Bowl

Boise, Idaho

Dec. 23

Ohio vs. San Jose State

Hawaii Bowl

Honolulu

Dec. 24

Sam Houston vs. Fresno State

Detroit Bowl

Detroit

Dec. 26

Wisconsin vs. Toledo

Rate Bowl

Phoenix

Dec. 26

Michigan vs. Baylor

68 Ventures Bowl

Mobile, Ala.

Dec. 26

Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana-Monroe

Birmingham Bowl

Birmingham

Dec. 27

North Texas vs. Florida

Armed Forces Bowl

Fort Worth

Dec. 27

Navy vs. West Virginia

Liberty Bowl

Memphis

Dec. 27

Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt

Holiday Bowl

San Diego

Dec. 27

Duke vs. Colorado

Las Vegas Bowl

Las Vegas

Dec. 27

Missouri vs. Washington State

Fenway Bowl

Boston

Dec. 28

Memphis vs. NC State

Pinstripe Bowl

Bronx, N.Y.

Dec. 28

Nebraska vs. Louisville

New Mexico Bowl

Albuquerque

Dec. 28

Connecticut vs. Maryland

Pop-Tarts Bowl

Orlando

Dec. 28

Kansas State vs. Syracuse

Arizona Bowl

Tucson

Dec. 28

Western Michigan vs. Colorado State

Military Bowl

Annapolis, Md.

Dec. 28

Tulane vs. Georgia Tech

Alamo Bowl

San Antonio

Dec. 28

California vs. Iowa State

Independence Bowl

Shreveport, La.

Dec. 28

Arizona State vs. Army

Music City Bowl

Nashville

Dec. 30

Minnesota vs. Ole Miss

ReliaQuest Bowl

Tampa

Dec. 31

Texas A&M vs. Clemson

Sun Bowl

El Paso, Texas

Dec. 31

Virginia Tech vs. Washington

Citrus Bowl

Orlando

Dec. 31

Iowa vs. LSU

Texas Bowl

Houston

Dec. 31

South Carolina vs. Texas Tech

Fiesta Bowl

Glendale, Ariz.

Dec. 31

No. 12 Boise State or No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 BYU

Peach Bowl

Atlanta

Jan. 1

No. 10 Notre Dame or No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 2 Georgia

Rose Bowl

Pasadena, Calif.

Jan. 1

No. 9 Indiana or No. 8 Tennessee vs. No. 1 Oregon

Sugar Bowl

New Orleans

Jan. 1

No. 11 Alabama or No. 6 Texas vs. No. 3 Miami

Gator Bowl

Jacksonville

Jan. 2

Oklahoma vs. SMU

First Responder Bowl

Dallas

Jan. 3

Virginia vs. TCU

Duke's Mayo Bowl

Charlotte

Jan. 3

Illinois vs. Pittsburgh

Bahamas Bowl

Nassau

Jan. 4

Buffalo vs. Jacksonville State

Orange Bowl

Miami Gardens, Fla.

Jan. 9

Sugar Bowl winner vs. Peach Bowl winner

Cotton Bowl

Arlington, Texas

Jan. 10

Fiesta Bowl winner vs. Rose Bowl winner

National Championship

Atlanta

Jan. 20

Orange Bowl winner vs. Cotton Bowl winner

Note the return of ex-Conference USA-mates Marshall and Western Kentucky to the Frisco Bowl; this space previously alluded to their insane meeting in 2014... Oregon State and UNLV (LA Bowl) met Oct. 19, with the Rebels winning 33–25; that may be cause for bowl executives to nix this matchup, though who knows in a highly elastic college football world... James Madison and Liberty (New Orleans Bowl) are separated by less than two hours of drive time; this would be their second postseason meeting after the Flames won 26–21 in the first round of the FCS playoffs.

Alabama and Texas (CFP first round) have split two meetings over the past two years, but they haven't met in the postseason since the Crimson Tide won 2009's national championship... Notre Dame and Penn State (CFP first round) used to play with relative regularity, but haven't played since 2007... Boise State and Ohio State (CFP first round) have never played... Both of Indiana and Tennessee's (CFP first round) meetings have been in bowl games—the Peach Bowl after the 1987 season and the Gator Bowl after the 2019 season. The Volunteers won both... Navy and West Virginia (Armed Forces Bowl), who aren't that far apart, haven't played since 1999... Cincinnati beat Vanderbilt (Liberty Bowl) in the 2011 Liberty Bowl, 31–24... Kansas State and Syracuse (Pop-Tarts Bowl) have three postseason matchups under their belt, including the final pre-BCS Fiesta Bowl in 1997 and the controversial first Pinstripe Bowl in 2010... Tulane and Georgia Tech (Military Bowl) are the two most recent teams to leave the SEC, doing so in 1965 and 1963, respectively... Iowa and LSU (Citrus Bowl) haven't met in that game since their legendary meeting after the 2004 season.

Potential CFP quarterfinal history: the Nittany Lions and Georgia's (Peach Bowl) first bowl meeting since 2015; the Fighting Irish and Bulldogs' first bowl meeting since 1980; the Hoosiers' first Rose Bowl trip since 1967; Miami and Alabama's (Sugar Bowl) first bowl meeting since their Sugar Bowl determined the 1992 national title... Bluebonnet Bowl rematch, anyone? Oklahoma and SMU (Gator Bowl) played there in 1968... Semifinal shenanigans: Indiana could meet BYU in the Cotton Bowl for the first time since their epic 1979 Holiday Bowl, while the Hurricanes will have a shot at de facto hosting Penn State or Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl in rematches of 1980s epics.

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Patrick Andres is a staff writer on the Breaking and Trending News team at Sports Illustrated. He joined SI in December 2022, having worked for The Blade, Athlon Sports, Fear the Sword and Diamond Digest. Andres has covered everything from zero-attendance Big Ten basketball to a seven-overtime college football game. He is a graduate of Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism with a double major in history .

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