Post-Week 11 Bowl Projections for the 2024 College Football Season

Anyone hoping that the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff wouldn't turn into a complete showcase of the SEC and Big Ten's prowess has had a rough November.

On Saturday, Georgia Tech dealt Miami a devastating 28–23 loss in Atlanta that may have ended the ACC's hopes of getting two teams into the field. That was followed in short order by Kansas's surprising 45–36 upset of Iowa State, which mere weeks ago had designs on a first-round bye.

These events are bad news for anyone hoping to offset the complete stratification of college football along conference lines, but they are good news for those of us in the bowl-projection business. After another intriguing week, here—working off the AP Poll and College Football Reference's Simple Rating System—is a look at how the bowl picture would shape up if the season ended today.

As usual, a string of commentary follows.

GAME

LOCATION

DATE

PROJECTED MATCHUP

Celebration Bowl

Atlanta

Dec. 14

Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

Camellia Bowl

Montgomery, Ala.

Dec. 14

Eastern Michigan vs. Coastal Carolina

Frisco Bowl

Frisco, Texas

Dec. 17

Georgia Southern vs. Western Kentucky

Boca Raton Bowl

Boca Raton, Fla.

Dec. 18

Miami-Ohio vs. Marshall

LA Bowl

Inglewood, Calif.

Dec. 18

Washington vs. UNLV

New Orleans Bowl

New Orleans

Dec. 19

James Madison vs. Liberty

Cure Bowl

Orlando

Dec. 20

Oklahoma vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

Gasparilla Bowl

Tampa

Dec. 20

Arkansas vs. Virginia

College Football Playoff First Round—Game 1

Bloomington, Ind.

Dec. 20

No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Indiana

College Football Playoff First Round—Game 2

University Park, Pa.

Dec. 21

No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Penn State

College Football Playoff First Round—Game 3

Columbus

Dec. 21

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State

College Football Playoff First Round—Game 4

Knoxville, Tenn.

Dec. 21

No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Tennessee

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Conway, S.C.

Dec. 23

Western Michigan vs. Louisiana-Monroe

Potato Bowl

Boise, Idaho

Dec. 23

Bowling Green vs. San Jose State

Hawaii Bowl

Honolulu

Dec. 24

Sam Houston vs. Fresno State

Detroit Bowl

Detroit

Dec. 26

Toledo vs. Michigan

Rate Bowl

Phoenix

Dec. 26

Cincinnati vs. Nebraska

68 Ventures Bowl

Mobile, Ala.

Dec. 26

Buffalo vs. Texas State

Birmingham Bowl

Birmingham

Dec. 27

Virginia Tech vs. North Texas

Armed Forces Bowl

Fort Worth

Dec. 27

Connecticut vs. Navy

Liberty Bowl

Memphis

Dec. 27

Texas Tech vs. Missouri

Holiday Bowl

San Diego

Dec. 27

Syracuse vs. Washington State

Las Vegas Bowl

Las Vegas

Dec. 27

Texas A&M vs. Colorado

Fenway Bowl

Boston

Dec. 28

Memphis vs. Boston College

Pinstripe Bowl

Bronx, N.Y.

Dec. 28

Pittsburgh vs. Rutgers

New Mexico Bowl

Albuquerque

Dec. 28

NC State vs. Arkansas State

Pop-Tarts Bowl

Orlando

Dec. 28

Iowa State vs. Duke

Arizona Bowl

Tucson

Dec. 28

Ohio vs. Colorado State

Military Bowl

Annapolis, Md.

Dec. 28

Tulane vs. North Carolina

Alamo Bowl

San Antonio

Dec. 28

California vs. Kansas State

Independence Bowl

Shreveport, La.

Dec. 28

Army vs. Baylor

Music City Bowl

Nashville

Dec. 30

Minnesota vs. LSU

ReliaQuest Bowl

Tampa

Dec. 31

Iowa vs. Clemson

Sun Bowl

El Paso, Texas

Dec. 31

Georgia Tech vs. Arizona State

Citrus Bowl

Orlando

Dec. 31

Illinois vs. Georgia

Texas Bowl

Houston

Dec. 31

South Carolina vs. TCU

Fiesta Bowl

Glendale, Ariz.

Dec. 31

No. 11 Ole Miss or No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 BYU

Peach Bowl

Atlanta

Jan. 1

No. 12 Boise State or No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Miami

Rose Bowl

Pasadena, Calif.

Jan. 1

No. 9 Notre Dame or No. 8 Tennessee vs. No. 1 Oregon

Sugar Bowl

New Orleans

Jan. 1

No. 10 Alabama or No. 7 Indiana vs. No. 2 Texas

Gator Bowl

Jacksonville

Jan. 2

SMU vs. Vanderbilt

First Responder Bowl

Dallas

Jan. 3

West Virginia vs. East Carolina

Duke's Mayo Bowl

Charlotte

Jan. 3

Wisconsin vs. Louisville

Bahamas Bowl

Nassau

Jan. 4

Northern Illinois vs. Jacksonville State

Orange Bowl

Miami Gardens, Fla.

Jan. 9

Fiesta Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner

Cotton Bowl

Arlington, Texas

Jan. 10

Peach Bowl winner vs. Rose Bowl winner

National Championship

Atlanta

Jan. 20

Orange Bowl winner vs. Cotton Bowl winner

Note South Carolina State replacing North Carolina Central as the MEAC's emissary to the Celebration Bowl; it'd be the Bulldogs' first appearance in the game since 2021, when they beat Jackson State 31–10... Georgia Southern joined the Sun Belt in 2014, the year after its potential Frisco Bowl opponent, Western Kentucky, left... Miami-Ohio and Marshall (Boca Raton Bowl) were MAC rivals for many years, most notably from 1997 to 2004 under legendary coaches Randy Walker, Terry Hoeppner and Bob Pruett.

Alabama and Indiana's (CFP first round) meeting would be the Hoosier State's second bowl-equivalent game, joining the national championship between Georgia and the Crimson Tide after the 2021 season... Ole Miss defeated Penn State (CFP first round) 38–25 in the Peach Bowl last season... Toledo is 1-0 all-time against Michigan (Detroit Bowl), having beaten a bad Wolverines team in 2008... Navy and Connecticut (Armed Forces Bowl) were together in the AAC from 2015 to '19... Ditto for Missouri and Texas Tech (Liberty Bowl) in the Big 12, from 1996 to 2011, as well as Texas A&M and Colorado (Las Vegas Bowl) from '96 to 2010... Memphis and Boston College (Fenway Bowl) could have wound up together in a proposed superconference; more on that in a minute... Pittsburgh and Rutgers (Pinstripe Bowl) were BIg East conference-mates from 1991 to 2012... Illinois and Georgia (Citrus Bowl) have never met in football.

Quarterfinal fun to look out for: the Nittany Lions' first meeting with BYU (Fiesta Bowl) since 1992; Notre Dame and Oregon's (Rose Bowl) first meeting since 1982; the Hoosiers' and Texas's (Sugar Bowl) first meeting since 1966... Not only could West Virginia and East Carolina (First Responder) have wound up together in the aforementioned superconference, their matchup would have added juice from the Mountaineers buying out of a 2026 road game against the Pirates... If chalk holds from a seeding standpoint, the Hurricanes and Ducks (Cotton Bowl) have not met since Miami won a 2–0 barnburner in 1958, while the Longhorns and Cougars (Orange Bowl) played last year.

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Patrick Andres is a staff writer on the Breaking and Trending News team at Sports Illustrated. He joined SI in December 2022, having worked for The Blade, Athlon Sports, Fear the Sword and Diamond Digest. Andres has covered everything from zero-attendance Big Ten basketball to a seven-overtime college football game. He is a graduate of Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism with a double major in history .

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