College football bowl projections evolve entering Week 8: Texas, Oregon make playoff statements

The College Football Playoff picture comes into focus within Week 8 bowl projections following Saturday's delivery on its promise of exciting finishes within the top 25. Oregon is the new Big Ten frontrunner after outlasting Ohio State in a battle of top-three unbeatens while Texas remains the SEC's lone unblemished team after throttling Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl.

In the first year of the playoff expansion, five automatic bids go to Power 4 conference champions along with the highest-ranked Group of Five team at season's end. Seven at-large spots are up from grabs elsewhere and strength of schedule means everything. The selection committee's first set of rankings will be released in a couple of weeks as the stretch run begins leading up to Selection Sunday.

No multi-loss team previously appeared in the playoff, but expansion guarantees that happens in 2024. One loss, at this point, is not season-ending, but two mean no margin for error.

RELATED: Week 8 AP Poll projections

Here are updated bowl projections and playoff predictions at midseason:

New Orleans Bowl

Projection: Liberty vs. Louisiana

Liberty's schedule is simply too soft to be a factor in the College Football Playoff discussion from the Group of Five ranks. That's not going to change unless Boise State and two unbeaten service academies start taking losses over the second half of the campaign.

Frisco Bowl

Projection: North Texas vs. Louisiana Monroe

Camellia Bowl

Projection: Western Kentucky vs. UConn

New Mexico Bowl

Projection: San Jose State vs. Texas State

Los Angeles Bowl

Projection: Colorado vs. UNLV

The Buffaloes let one get away against Kansas State after erasing a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter. Late-game execution failures defensively led their second loss under second-year coach Deion Sanders, but the likelihood of getting to the postseason is high. There are no remaining ranked games unless Utah doesn't find its way back in the top 25.

Cure Bowl

Projection: Western Michigan vs. Marshall

Boca Raton Bowl

Projection: Cincinnati vs. East Carolina

Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Projection: UCF vs. Iowa

Anyone see the Hawkeyes' 26-point win over Washington coming? The rare offensive explosion, that included Cade McNamara's first touchdown pass of the season against a power-four opponent, is a great sign for this team. They're capable of 10 wins if they keep it going, but the 8-4 threshold feels more likely until that offensive unit can be more consistent. UCF lost three straight and bowl hopes are beginning to deteriorate.

Detroit Bowl

Projection: Rutgers vs. Toledo

Hawaii Bowl

Projection: Tulane vs. Fresno State

Gasparilla Bowl

Projection: Army vs. Vanderbilt

After beating Kentucky on the road a week after upsetting Alabama with the biggest win in program history, the Commodores replace the Wildcats following their fourth victory. Vanderbilt is two victories away from getting Clark Lea to his first bowl game as coach. And what about Army? The unbeaten Black Knights control their Group of Five playoff destiny in the coming weeks if they're able to topple Notre Dame and win the American Athletic without a blemish.

Potato Bowl

Projection: Georgia Southern vs. Bowling Green

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Projection: Duke vs. Coastal Carolina

Fenway Bowl

Projection: Memphis vs. Syracuse

The only Orange loss this season came by two points inside the Carrier Dome to Stanford and you know Syracuse would love to have a do-over there. Saturday's win at NC State was the program's third straight under first-year coach Fran Brown. Up next is unbeaten Pitt at the end of the month. That will help sort out the top-tier of the ACC behind Miami and Clemson.

Armed Forces Bowl

Projection: TCU vs. Michigan State

Birmingham Bowl

Projection: James Madison vs. Boston College

68 Ventures Bowl

Projection: Ohio vs. Arkansas State

Las Vegas Bowl

Projection: Utah vs. Oklahoma

Two teams which fell from the national rankings after disappointing performances in Week 7, the Utes and Sooners met once previously (1977). Oklahoma plays four top 20 teams over its final six games, so there's no guarantee of even getting to bowl season unless the Sooners take care of business against South Carolina next week and Maine in November.

Liberty Bowl

Projection: West Virginia vs. Washington State

Holiday Bowl

Projection: Georgia Tech vs. Washington

The Yellow Jackets' notable win at North Carolina puts Georgia Tech one victory shy of bowl eligibility through seven games with a showdown against Notre Dame on the horizon. The back end of the slate is loaded with quality competition. Washington stubbed its toe at Iowa a week after clubbing Michigan at home — such is life in the Big Ten.

Pinstripe Bowl

Projection: Louisville vs. Wisconsin

Military Bowl

Projection: Virginia vs. Navy

Arizona Bowl

Projection: Eastern Michigan vs Colorado State

Bahamas Bowl

Projection: NIU vs. Sam Houston

Music City Bowl

Projection: Michigan vs. Arkansas

These two programs only met once all-time, way back in 1999 when the Wolverines beat the Razorbacks in the Citrus Bowl. This season's Big Ten-SEC matchup in Nashville would be a hot seller if organizers are lucky enough to get Michigan and Arkansas. Both teams were open in Week 7.

Mayo Bowl

Projection: Illinois vs. Virginia Tech

First Responder Bowl

Projection: Minnesota vs. Arizona State

Sun Bowl

Projection: Cal vs. Arizona

Pop-Tarts Bowl

Projection: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa State

Notre Dame replaced the Cyclones in this week's playoff picks, but Iowa State certainly has a chance to lock-in a playoff berth with a strong finish as one of two remaining unbeatens in the Big 12. That league is the Power 4's most unpredictable and Saturday's win at West Virginia was another momentum-builder for Matt Campbell's group. And it's time we start talking about the Panthers potentially wrecking things in the ACC.

Alamo Bowl

Projection: USC vs. Texas Tech

Independence Bowl

Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Oregon State

ReliaQuest Bowl

Projection: LSU vs. Nebraska

LSU is unbeaten since its season-opening loss to USC and Saturday night's thrilling overtime win over Ole Miss keeps the Tigers near the top of the SEC standings with Texas and Texas A&M. All of Brian Kelly's goals are in front of this team led by quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who could play his way into the Heisman race in upcoming games against Alabama and the Aggies.

Citrus Bowl

Projection: Ole Miss vs. Indiana

Gator Bowl

Projection: Missouri vs. SMU

Texas Bowl

Projection: Kansas State vs. Tennessee

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Oregon

No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Miami

No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Georgia

No. 9 Texas A&M at No. 8 Penn State

That's right — a rematch between the Broncos and Ducks in the first round of the playoffs. Oregon's win over Ohio State makes Dan Lanning's team the obvious unbeaten frontrunner at midseason, but chances are high they play the Buckeyes again for a Big Ten Championship — with a different projected result on a neutral field. ... As the ACC runner-up at potentially 12-1, Miami as the No. 6 seed would come to fruition if others behind the Hurricanes have multiple losses as at-large selections. ... Notre Dame is back in the mix, too.

No. 8 Penn State vs. No. 1 Texas

No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State

No. 11 Alabama vs. No. 3 Clemson

No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 BYU

While Ohio State's loss to Oregon is damaging, the Buckeyes should get a chance to win the rematch with the Ducks in Indianapolis at the Big Ten Championship if Ryan Day's team wins out. That would mean the Buckeyes have wins over unbeatens Penn State and Indiana down the stretch, snap their skid against Michigan and then beat a potentially unblemished Ducks team. Only Texas could have a better resume.